Iran Offers U.S Help In 'Exit Strategy'

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister has offered the United States his country's help in developing an exit strategy for U.S forces in Iraq:

Abbas Araghchi, speaking to the Financial Times business daily, also dismissed U.S. allegations that Iran was supplying Iraqi insurgents with weapons, and added that no amount of pressure would convince Iran to give up its nuclear program.

"Their invasion was a disaster ... let there not be a disastrous withdrawal," Aragchi told the paper. "Yes, immediate withdrawal could lead to chaos, civil war. No one is asking for immediate withdrawal of foreign forces. But there should be a plan." Aragchi said, however, that the American presence in Iraq was part of the problem, telling the FT that Iraq is "suffering a vicious cycle."

"There are foreign forces who have occupied Iraq and justify their presence under the pretext of the 'war on terror' and there are terrorists who claim they are fighting occupiers," he said. He said, as well, that American claims that Iran was supplying Iraqi insurgents were without basis: "They should stop blaming others for problems they have themselves created." "In fact, the number of weapons that have come into Iran from Iraq is high, as you can see by reading the crime pages of (Iranian) newspapers. Terrorist groups as well as criminals see Iraq as an opportunity."

Extended Comment: In recent weeks, Iran has begun to level accusations towards the United States that the prolonged campaign in Iraq has been harmful to their security; much like the constant U.S claims that Iran is aiding and financing terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. Of course, we know that second part is true, and one wonders who's best interest the Iranian regime has in mind given its ongoing effort to undermine the sovereignty of Lebanon, through Hezbollah.

The prospect of an Iranian-designed U.S pullout from Iraq (as ridiculous of a proposition as there exists) is non-existant, yet one wonders if the true extent of the hypocrisy of this statement is felt by the Islamic clerics in power in Iran. If the Persian regime is so willing to better the situation of its neighbors (who's children have suffered so greatly in recent years), where was this generosity at the recent Iraq conference? Was the prospect of peace and stability in the region not worth ignoring the woman in red for a few hours? Would this 'exit strategy' the Iranians are offering take into account the suffering caused by Iran's continued calls for increased resistance in the region, which have aided in the radicalization of the region's youth?

The truth is that Iran is an enemy of the United States; it has made this distinction very clear. Yet the debate today centers around Iran's capability of acting upon its declared opposition to American values and its support for Israel; is Iran an enemy to be feared? Ahmadinijad has tried to establish himself as an academic, a supporter of intellectual debate upon which he has based his core positions of denying Israel's existence and his country's nuclear program. So far the United States and its allies have dismissed Iranian rhetoric as baseless propaganda, refusing to engage in debates provoked by ridiculous claims of holocaust denial and U.S plots to divide the country. I say why doesn't the world engage this debate? If they feel they have some sort of intellectual superiority over the world that justifies their radicalized conception of global justice, let's show them how wrong they are. Statements like the 'exit strategy' will be overlooked as no more than ridiculous verbiage from a regime that has proven more than capable of providing blog-fodder and enraging those of us that subscribe to the values of logic and humanity. Yet Western politicians who openly oppose and criticize Iran should use these statements to engage debates with the Regime, to undermine their intellectual and moral superiority in the same fashion with which they attempt to destroy the credibility of the West with claims of imperialism and injustice. It must be realized that as ridiculous as their statements sound to us, there are many who will take hear their words with no rebuttal from foreign leaders.

It is no longer enough to dismiss these statements; we cannot allow any legitimacy to the men who make such claims, as this is an over-looked front on the ideological aspect of the war on terror. Many will argue that responding to these statements provides legitimacy for their claims; I argue the opposite. In a region where statements by religious leaders are taken as fact, we must not allow radical regimes to gain any following from these words. If they want to be enemies, let's make them look like ignorant ones.

Show Trials In Iran

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

With much of its' international critics distracted by the recent hostage situation, as well as their ongoing nuclear adventure, Iran's government has begun repressing the political opposition again.

As part of a wider crackdown, Iran's parliament has also passed laws enabling security organisations - including the Revolutionary Guard, which was responsible for kidnapping the 15 Britons - to detain suspects for months for the purposes of interrogation.

Police are also reportedly planning to tackle more low-level dissent, including standards of public attire. Women who fail to cover their hair fully, or who wear skirts or coats considered immodestly short, are expected to be among the first targets in the next few days.

Some western diplomats are sceptical about the credentials of the reformists, regarding them as only slightly more moderate than Ahmadinejad's hardliners, though they enjoyed more freedom under the previous presidency of Mohammad Khatami, who held the post from 1997 to 2005.

According to some in the Iranian opposition, reformists are being given court sentences in order to disqualify them from running for parliament, with many predicting a pattern of show trials:

"They want to have a sword above our head and the rest is excuses," he said. "The main issue here is that in the coming year we have the parliamentary elections. Because rejecting reformist candidates in the previous election created problems for the judiciary, they are taking a different route this time."

Rather than risk further international criticism for an overt clampdown on opponents, he said the government was using the courts to neuter them.

"What they want to do is to put the reformists in court now, and sentence them for any reason. If they have a court record, they will automatically be barred from standing for election," he said.

"The hardliners desperately want to see the back of the reformists and have proved that they are willing to use any kind of tactic to achieve their goal."

Amir Taheri, an exiled Iranian journalist based in Europe, said the regime was preparing show trials for scores of dissidents.

"It seems to be setting the stage for show trials that recall the worst days of Stalinism in the Soviet Union," he said.

US: Iran Training Iraqi Militia

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

Not that this is exactly 'news', but there's new reason to believe that Iran's revolutionary guard may be training Iraqi fighters in bomb making. Ongoing battles between coalition forces and the Mahdi Army have seen many members of Muqtada Al-Sadr's militia detained and interrogated, revealing new Iranian links:

BAGHDAD - Iranian intelligence operatives have been training Iraqi fighters inside Iran on how to use and assemble deadly roadside bombs known as EFPs, the U.S. military spokesman said Wednesday.

Commanders of a splinter group inside the Shiite Mahdi Army militia have told The Associated Press that there are as many as 4,000 members of their organization that were trained in Iran and that they have stockpiles of EFPs, a weapon that causes great uneasiness among U.S. forces here because they penetrate heavily armored vehicles.

U.S. military spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell would not say how many militia fighters had been trained in Iran but said that questioning of fighters captured as recently as this month confirmed many had been in Iranian training camps.

"We know that they are being in fact manufactured and smuggled into this country, and we know that training does go on in Iran for people to learn how to assemble them and how to employ them. We know that training has gone on as recently as this past month from detainees debriefs," Caldwell said at a weekly briefing.

EFP stands for explosively formed penetrator, deadly roadside bombs that hurl a fist-size lump of molten copper capable of piercing armor.

Update: A good article on what the U.S. faces in fighting the Mahdi Army from the Washington Post.

Update 2: Al-Sadr's political bloc is now threatening to resign from parliament because of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki's opposition to setting a timetable for U.S troop withdrawal. Is it just me, or is it an Islamist tactic to threaten to boycott parliament?

Also, here's an interesting article on the diversity of Islamist groups in the region, and how that diversity could lead to Al-Qaeda's decline.

Russia, Iran Voice Skepticism Over Iran Nuclear Claims

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

Follow up on the story posted earlier about Iran's announcement that they have a reached a stage of industrial nuclear development; Russia and France say that claim is unlikely:

MOSKOW - Russia voiced skepticism today about Iran's announcement of a dramatic expansion of its uranium enrichment program, saying it had yet to receive confirmation of the claim from the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. France and Australia also questioned Iran's claim of acquiring an industrial-scale nuclear fuel production capability.

Islamic Republic News Agency reported. An official of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization confirmed their arrival, and said the visit was "routine." The official spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Iran said Monday it has begun operating 3,000 centrifuges — nearly 10 times the previously known number — in defiance of U.N. demands that it halt its nuclear program or face increased sanctions. The United States, Britain, France and others criticized the announcement.

Russia was unaware, however, of "any recent technological breakthroughs in the Iranian nuclear program that would change the format of its enrichment effort," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a statement. The Russian government helped built Iran's only nuclear reactor and knows its nuclear program well.

Some analysis on this announcement from the Independent, and the ensuing confrontation with the United States.

More Kidnapping?

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

As we said here at Show Me The Rules, this story would not end with the release of the 15 British sailors, and indeed it hasn't.

Hardliners in the Iranian regime have warned that the seizure of British naval personnel demonstrates that they can make trouble for the West whenever they want to and do so with impunity.

The bullish reaction from Teheran will reinforce the fears of western diplomats and military officials that more kidnap attempts may be planned.

The British handling of the crisis has been regarded with some concern in Washington, and a Pentagon defence official told The Sunday Telegraph: "The fear now is that this could be the first of many. If the Brits don't change their rules of engagement, the Iranians could take more hostages almost at will.

Of course this all should make complete sense. Think about it: if you ruled a country in authoritarian fashion like Iran does, and one of your cheap tricks of political propaganda manages to make you seem somewhat sane to the world, why not do it again? Iran is a threat to the world without nuclear weapons, what the hell would happen if they got their hands on some?

For a good blog on reformist news in Iran, check out Regime Change Iran.

Also, some side stories I wanted to blog about but didn't think they deserved their own posts:

-Iran tries to counter claims of abuse leveled against it by the former captive British, releasing new video showing the sailors playing chess and watching television.

-Iranian Diplomat claims CIA tortured him during his abduction in Iraq by joint American-Iraqi forces. Obviously, the timing is suspicious, and suggests it was orchestrated to counter claims of abuse by the British.

-Apparently this whole soldier crisis deal is making Ahmadinijad a rock star on the Arab street. Reaction from the financial times.

Update - I'm not sure how I missed this story, but Ahmadinijad announces today that Iran has "entered the group of countries that produce nuclear fuel industrially". Looks like Iran knows it has fresh sanctions coming its way, and is trying to act defiant in front of the world.

Iran Crisis: Aftermath

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

A few good articles that help gain a little perspective on the significance of the conflict. This article off of Time.com gives 3 messages Iran may have been giving by detaining the British sailors:

Don't think about attacking Iran, because it has the capacity to threaten Western interests in the Gulf and throughout the Middle East, directly as well as through allies in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine;

Expect Iran to instigate trouble if the West continues to punish Iran for what it sees simply as exercising as its legal right to nuclear technology; and,

Iran will play tit-for-tat if U.S. forces continue arresting Iranian officials working inside Iraq, as in the Jan. 11 raid on an Iranian consular facility in Erbil where five Iranians were detained.

Also, here's an article about the release of the sailors, and who played a role on both sides. Note the last paragraph, and the reality check this crisis has given the British government over its political clout on the world stage.

It had failed to secure a strong denunciation of Iran's actions from the U.N. Security Council; its European allies were balancing support for Britain against their business interests; and although Prime Minister Tony Blair warned a failure to reach a quick resolution would lead to a "new phase" in response to the detentions, nobody detected in his words the martial sounds of rattling sabers.

It seems like the U.S and Britain are letting Iran pass for now. I'd imagine a push for new sanctions on the Iranian regime, but to me, this was an act of war. Perhaps it doesn't justify military action against the country, but couldn't the rhetoric of the British be a little harsher?

Update - Another perspective saying Iran must be handled with patience and restraint.

Also, the U.S might have offered to scare the Iranians for the British while the sailors were in Iran, involving "combat aircrafts patrolling over Iranian bases to show how serious the incident was, the newspaper said in a front page story." The British turned it down, which is too bad because it would have been fun to see how Iran would've reacted.

Update 2- Here's a pretty weird video of the sailors partying in Iran, from Iranian TV. They were given their 'freedom', then probably told to express their 'joy' in front of the Iranian public.

Iran Is Generous

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

Iranian ambassador to Britain Rasoul Movahedian talks about his country's latest act of generosity to the Financial Times. In an interview, he shares his perspective of the crisis and what it shows:

"It’s a triumph for Iranian-British relationship, which [gave] British politicians and diplomats a chance to have a taste of ethical diplomacy. We actually achieved this through intensive bilateral negotiations and of course ultimately as a gift of my president to British people."

A great gift, just in time for Easter. Meanwhile, here's what the released British sailors had to say about Iran's gesture of 'good will'.

"I would just like to stress three points at this stage: When taken by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard we were well inside Iraqi territorial waters. The detention was clearly illegal and not a pleasant experience. We as a group held out for as long as we though appropriate. We then complied up to a point with our captors."

Read the full statement here.

Iran punches Britain in the Face; World Forgets and Forgives

UPDATE: Check out the new blog covering the Mid East: Outsider On The Inside

I don't understand how Iran escaped war, but I definitely thought the world would react much harsher towards the Islamic state after they abducted 15 British sailors nearly two weeks ago. Now that the soldiers are released, I still expect something from Britain towards Iran, so we'll keep watching. The language from other European countries was relatively weak, non-confrontational, and the reaction seems to be similar. Here's a German perspective of the conflict and the release, with "analysts" putting it in a positive, hopeful light.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Wednesday described the release of the sailors as a "start... (which) will open the door to further cooperation."

They make it seem like Iran has done something good. Maybe I'm missing something here, but didn't Iran just commit an act of war? If the British say the sailors weren't in Iranian waters, doesn't that make this an illegal abduction?